Projections released by the Ontario government modelling the spread of COVID-19 in the province predict between 3,000 and 15,000 people could die over the course of the pandemic, if all current public health measures remain in place.
The lifespan of the virus could last as long as 18 months to two years.
Public Health Ontario president and CEO Dr. Peter Donnelly led a press conference Friday afternoon to detail the models provincial health officials have been relying on to advise the Ford government on the measures it is putting in place to stop the spread, such as school closures, non-essential business shutdowns and other restrictions.
If no measures were taken at all, Donnelly says up to 100,000 people could have died in Ontario from COVID-19 over the full course of the pandemic.
“Thankfully that is not the position we are in,” says Donnelly. “Because of the very detailed actions … which have been taken in response to emerging science. We believe that if we do all that we can, we can get a much better end result for the province.”
“If we do everything that we can think of, everything that already has been done stays in place, and all of the other measures which are being considered put in place,” continues Donnelly,” then I think we could reduce the death toll in Ontario to somewhere between 3,000 and 15,000.”
Even with the current measures in place, the expectation is by the end of April alone up to 80,000 people will be infected with COVID-19 and nearly 1,600 people will die.
“We need people to stay home, to stay focused, to stop the spread and to say safe,” says Donnelly. “Everybody needs to fully adhere to the public health measures that are put in place, because we want to avoid overwhelming the health service.”