Hi this is Fred Wallace with Off the Wire, brought to you by your local Auto Logic….the Logical Choice.
I walked into an American sports bar one night and to my amazement the NHL was everywhere; big screens, big games.
As often is the case in a sports bar, a compelling discussion broke out and a former NHL’er who happened to be in the bar related that the teams that have a playoff position by US Thanksgiving stay in a playoff position, according to him, 90-95 percent of the time.
I respectfully listened to this theory, but with the blazing start of the Montreal Canadiens and their wicked collapse, I wasn’t totally prepared to buy it……………………so I checked.
Comparing the NHL standings as of Friday November 27th to those of March 22nd, I found 12 of the 16 teams ( 75 % ) that had playoff positions at US Thanksgiving still held a post season spot when I checked last week.
Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver and Minnesota lost playoff spots over that span while Florida, Tampa Bay, Anaheim and Colorado had moved in.
However, it doesn’t take much imagination to contend that Minnesota’s fall might be brief and they could still swap with Colorado before the end of the season.
Plus, the respective reversal of fortunes for the Canadiens and the Ducks could be considered extreme rarities, so the theory, with a little creativity might have been 15 for 16 this season.
It’s not my theory, but it looks like it’s a good one.
I’m Fred Wallace