Grey County is looking at what needs to be done to ensure its paramedics service will continues to meet demand over the next decade.
Consultant Andrew Greggan of Operational Research in Health (ORH) presetned a report to Committee of the Whole Thursday, which recommends phasing in more resources by 2033.
They include opening a new EMS location in Feversham in 2025, adding more shifts to the ration and two more supervisors as the the service, and demand for it grows. They also recommend adding more schedulers. Greggan says, right now they work Monday to Friday, and they could be used on weekends in the future.
They’ re also recommending creating an additional logistics depot in a different part of Grey County. In a staff report, Director of Paramedic Services Kevin McNab says this could possibly be part of a new, larger base in Durham with logistics capacity and bays for operational and spare vehicles.
After looking at age, gender, population data based on community, and forecasts to 2033 — ORH’s Greggan says there’s an aging population, and per person over the last ten years there’s more demand for service. He say it’s difficult to say precisely why the demand per person has increased, but notes that it is happening.
The consultant’s analysis also shows an increase in demand for response to life-threatening emergencies post-2020.
They’re expecting an average increase in call volumes of 5.8 per cent per year and a 68 per cent increase over the next ten years.
Duggan presented some projections for demand, saying for the age group 75 and up, in 2022 there were about 360 calls per 1,000 people per year. He’s projecting 700 calls per year for every 1,000 people. “If you got to 1,000 per thousand people, that’s every person effectively needing assistance once a year,” says Duggan.
His numbers also show a greater increase in demand in the Town of the Blue Mountains in the winter, and also projected growth in that area.
Meanwhile, a map colour coding response times throughout the county showed some rural areas took 15 minutes or more, while urban areas had more response times of 8 minutes or fewer. One of the areas with longer response times shown on the map is between Flesherton and the Town of the Blue Mountains.
A staff report to the committee says, over the next decade, an additional 672 weekly ambulance hours will be required.
The recommendations for staffing over the next decade are a 12-hour day shift at Owen Sound and Hanover, a 12-hour day shift at a new base in Feversham, adding a 12-hour day shift at Meaford, as well as a 12-hour late shift and a 12-hour night shift in Owen Sound, and additional 12-hour day shifts in Durham and Craigleith.
McNab’s staff report says Grey County Paramedics’ current fleet has twenty-three vehicles, including ambulances and response units. It uses nine transport ambulances at peak, and eight off peak. They have nine management staff, three administrative staff and 145 full-time and part-time paramedics. They have eight bases, staffed constantly.