Grey Bruce’s medical officer of health assures schools are safe and says some people may “need to step back and re-calibrate that risk” relating to Omicron.
In an interview recorded recently with Bayshore Broadcasting News responding to questions about the Ontario government’s decision to close publicly funded schools across the province for two weeks out of the holiday break, Arra says based on risk assessment and his understanding from the (Covid-19 Science Advisory Table), and the Chief Medical Officer of Health, the risk for young children for severe disease from Omicron is really low, and “close to zero” for intensive care unit admission or death.
Dr. Ian Arra says that was not the case with previous Covid strains.
A spokesperson for the Premier’s office confirmed on Monday schools in Ontario will reopen to in-person learning on Jan. 17, according to numerous media reports.
Arra says in Grey Bruce there’s “no question” schools are safe and his understanding from other medical officers of health in the province is they are across Ontario. In Bruce and Grey counties, he explains there have been less than 20 cases where transmission happened within the school during the pandemic.
“That’s why the decision was there is no need of management of outbreak in schools,” says Arra. “They are safe.”
Speaking about the Ontario government’s decision to close schools for two weeks despite this fact, Arra says while he does not sit at the provincial table if you look at the picture across the province control of the pandemic is less than optimal.
He says “perception of risk” is something Public Health looks at and if the provincial situation requires a lockdown for a short period of time with several sectors closed and schools are left open, it could lead to outrage.
Citing the work of Dr. Peter Sandman, a specialist in Public Health risk communications in emergencies, Arra says risk equals hazard plus outrage. Hazard refers to the actual level of risk, and outrage is the perception of the public.
“You bring all these things together, the provincial situation requires closing down certain sectors. Schools are probably not one of them,” Arra explains. “But if you don’t close it, immediately many parents, many school staff, and other stakeholders in the situation, would be very concerned and wonder ‘why are you risking our safety?'”
“It happened before,” continues Arra. “Where the public are concerned and because of the perception, not the actual risk, our lines will be flooded.”
Arra says from that point of view, he can see how the decision was made to include schools with the sectors ordered closed by the province earlier this month.
“This is my own belief, is if schools were not included in this lockdown, we would have potentially lost trust from many sectors who are very compliant and very engaged,” explains Arra. “Again, there is risk from the disease itself versus the risk from closure, and there is risk for losing trust in the management of pandemic. And what is that going to cause down the road?”
Asked whether there are cost-benefit analyses being done to determine whether Covid infection poses a greater risk to kids than social isolation and learning loss from school closures, Arra says it is a key question looked at constantly.
He says there is risk with everything being done and Public Health’s role in pandemic management is to open things as fast as it can, so long as it’s safe.
“Because the consequences of the measures, the restrictions, would cause disease and potentially death,” says Arra. “People who are struggling with mental illness or are not well and you close the system. They would not be able to get screening for cancer for example, or if a person slips into depression. There are consequences to lockdowns, no question about that.”
Arra says with Omicron the “risk benefit is definitely with opening schools as soon as we can.”
Asked if Covid poses less risk than other infectious diseases that can circulate in schools or childcare settings that are less focused on such as RSV (respiratory synctical virus), Arra says it’s a difficult question to quantify.
“But one aspect of it, there is no immunity to Covid that is widely spread in the community, similar to other viruses that have been circulating for years. So the other diseases can affect a very narrow group of people in the community, younger children,” Arra explains. “From that point of view, even if a disease is a bit more severe that Covid or similar to Covid, the population affected is very small versus when we’re looking at practically everybody … especially children who have not gotten the vaccine there is zero immunity that group until they are vaccinated or infected and gained immunity from the wild virus.”
“That’s where the risk is,” Arra continues. “And again, there is difference between Omicron and the strains before. We had the Delta variant. The fact that Omicron took over, it helped significantly in avoiding a variant that was relatively infectious, but also severe.”
Arra says if you “put that all in perspective … we all need to step back and just recalibrate” the risk Covid poses, specifically Omicron.
“How severe is this? And where is the risk? Is it on the individual? Probably not when they’re young. It’s most likely not when they’re young,” Grey Bruce’s medical officer of health explains. “Is it on society? And the ability of this virus to infect hundreds of thousands, and some of them, even a small fraction ending up in ICU is going to overwhelm the system.”
Arra recommends attending the Public Health Agency of Canada, Public Health Ontario or Grey Bruce Health Unit websites to read information about the risk of Omicron.
Moving forward, Arra anticipates there may be more of a return to normality from a Covid policy perspective in two or three months. He expects the seasonal change in weather, increased level of vaccination and increased immunity from wild Omicron infection will result in less virus circulation.
Arra says containment has not been the target for awhile now and recent regulatory changes reflect this.
He says despite the fact there is currently a lockdown in place there has already been some movement towards less disruptive policy for workers, and in settings like childcare centres or schools, such as the reduced five day isolation period and the elimination of testing requirements.
He reminds Covid is not a virus that can be eradicated — it will be endemic — and calls the recent switch to focus on slowing down the progress of it “very appropriate.”
“Slowing down the progress can be done through a few strategies,” Arra explains. “One of them is increasing the level of vaccine. There is evidence of a third dose protecting more and it is common sense with vaccines, anytime there is more booster doses there is more benefit there.”
“The other one is for all of us to be vigilant for a short period of time … to slow down this progress instead of the healthcare system getting the hit in a few weeks,” Arra continues. “If we can spread it out, we can assure that people who need to attend to the healthcare system for Covid or any other reason, will have a bed to be cared for. That’s the goal here, it’s not containment.”