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Positive COVID-19 Projections Released By Ontario Health Officials

Laura Hampshire
Apr 20, 2020 | 12:33 PM
Last Updated: Apr 20, 2020 | 1:19 PM

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Positive COVID-19 Projections Released By Ontario Health Officials


Some positive news have been released today by Ontario Public Health officials.

They have released their latest projections on the severity of COVID-19 in the province.

Officials now say they expect 20-thousand cases of the virus by the end of April, that’s WAY down from the previous estimate of 80-thousand.

However, they add that it’s still too difficult to predict COVID-19 mortality.

They say community-based cases are coming down and there are a lower number of overall deaths, but the virus continues to ramp up in long-term care homes.

The province announced 660 new cases in the last 24 hours, which is a daily high, but officials say that they believe Ontario is at the peak of the outbreak and is now at a place where it is seeing roughly the same number of cases every day.

Key highlights from the modelling update include:

  • The wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked.
  • Outbreaks in long-term care and congregate settings continue to be a major concern. Concerted actions are underway to protect vulnerable people in these settings.
  • Ontario is now trending toward a best case scenario rather than a worst case scenario and has significantly improved its standing as compared to March modelling.
  • The province has avoided a significant surge in cases. Total cumulative cases are forecast to be substantially lower than worst case or even moderate case scenarios projected by previous models.
  • While several hundred new cases are identified daily in Ontario, hospitals across the province have not been overwhelmed by the COVID-19 outbreak as a result of capacity planning and the public health measures currently in place. The rate of growth day-over-day is declining.
  • To further reduce the number of cases and deaths, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including staying home and practicing physical distancing if they must go out for essential reasons only.

“The information released today shows early but unmistakable signs that our efforts are working,” said Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health. “These numbers are not an accident. They are the result of months of planning and collective action to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. However, in order for these projections to become reality, each of us must continue to stay home as much possible and practise physical distancing.”

For the full announcement, please click here.

For a closer look at the modelling and scenarios, please click here.

For the latest Ontario COVID-19 Updates, please click here.

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