While there’s been a slight uptick in confirmed Covid infections and one outbreak in Grey Bruce recently, the region’s medical officer of health Dr. Ian Arra assures circulation of the virus is quite under control and transmission trends are “as good as it gets” for a fourth wave.
Grey Bruce’s active known cases have risen to 48 amid the recent increase in new infections, a bit above the average of 34 the region saw in the first half of November. Holland Chatsworth Central School in Holland Centre was declared in outbreak recently due to two cases at the school and six additional infections in attendees at the facility who acquired the virus outside the school environment.
But that is the only outbreak in what Arra calls “sensitive sectors” in the region right now. There are no other schools, childcare centres, retirement homes or long-term care homes in outbreak.
Arra says the recent increase in cases does not change the general trend which he calls “quite manageable” with on average less than five new cases per day.
“Transmission in Grey Bruce is as good as it gets. There are certain indicators we always monitor and observe,” Arra says. “One of these indicators would be if there are multiple outbreaks in regulated settings. And that’s something we haven’t seen. The circulation of the virus is quite under control and we hope when we reach and exceed 90 per cent vaccination, that circulation will not be there.”
What the increase in new infections in Grey Bruce over the last few weeks has also not resulted in is a significant rise in severe disease. Only two people are hospitalized in the region due to Covid. There has not been a death reported related to the virus since Oct. 3.
And that’s mostly because of the protection offered by vaccines, Arra says.
“The number of new cases might not really reflect in increased hospitalization or death and that’s mainly due to the vaccine,” says Grey Bruce’s medical officer of health. “People who are vaccinated might still get the virus and get infection, but the chances of that are less. And the chances of severe disease that leads to hospitalization or death is extremely less.”
Some public health units in Ontario have re-introduced new measures in recent weeks due to local surges. Public Health Sudbury and Districts brought back Step 3 capacity limits for several indoor settings like bars, restaurants, movie theatres and sporting venues. The Kingston, Frontenac, Lennox & Addington Public Health introduced a private indoor gathering limit of 10 people, lower than the province’s regulated threshold of 25.
Based on current trends, Arra doesn’t expect Grey Bruce will need to go down a similar path in bringing back some additional measures at some point this winter. He says that’s because over the past 20 months residents in the region, as well as employers and other operators of regulated settings have taken “above and beyond” steps to ensure safety.
“We know that regulated settings in Grey Bruce have been the safest settings,” Arra says. “Most of the transmission happens in family and friends settings. If we see a shift in that, that might be an early indicator of the need to put further restrictions. But I see the probability of that as very slim.”
Grey Bruce’s medical officer of health says if there is a change in the level of immunity in the community due to waning protection from vaccines eight to 10 months after a second dose, an increased level of risk could be re-introduced.
“But, as you know the province is acting proactively, providing a third dose for the vulnerable sector,” he says. “And around the new year there might be a decision to provide a third dose for the general public as well, to ensure the immunity continues and hopefully this will be the end of the pandemic.”
Arra says there’s a seasonality in the way viruses behave and the expectation is if there’s going to be a surge, it would be around this time or in the spring — the periods when Ontario experienced its previous major waves in 2020 and earlier this year.
“And it’s not there,” says Arra. “So if we ensure there’s enough immunity in the community, 90-plus per cent, that will carry us through the spring. And hopefully there isn’t another surge, and hopefully that will be the end of the pandemic altogether.”
In October, the Ontario government laid out a plan to end most of the province’s remaining Covid measures — including the indoor mask mandate in public settings and proof of vaccination requirement for certain venues — by March 28, 2022.
Arra says while he doesn’t sit at the provincial table to see all the indicators, the plan does seem very measured with the progress of the vaccine rollout.
“Obviously, there’s a caveat there if things change, the plan will be altered,” he says.