More people need to get vaccinated against COVID-19 or we face a substantial fourth wave of the pandemic.
That’s according to Ontario’s Science Advisory Table, which says the fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity.
The group of medical experts released its latest modelling online late yesterday, which says we’re plateauing at about 76% of eligible Ontarians getting fully vaccinated, but we now need to get above 85% of eligible Ontarians to even stand a chance against the Delta variant.
It says there will not be the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated, but among the unvaccinated, the group does expect to see a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education re-open in September.
Some of the Key Findings include:
- Vaccination offers substantial protection against severe health outcomes. We do not expect to see the same proportion of severely ill cases in the vaccinated. Among the unvaccinated, we do expect to see a rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing hospital care as workplaces and education re-open in September.
- The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed ICU capacity.
- Because of the Delta variant and to avoid a lockdown in the Fall, vaccination needs to accelerate substantially above 85% of eligible population aged 12+ fully vaccinated and we need to reduce contacts to about 70% of pre-pandemic levels until vaccination is high enough to protect the population:
- Reducing indoor density, maintaining physical distancing, limiting large gatherings;
- Continuing indoor mask policies and working from home; and
- Implementing policies that accelerate vaccination (e.g. certificates, mandates, outreach)
- Like other jurisdictions, Ontario is in the 4th wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our models, federal models, and models in other jurisdictions predict a substantial 4th wave.
- The Delta variant is more than twice as transmissible than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus
- For delta, R0 is 6-8: one infected individual (blue) is expected to infect 6-8 additional people without control measures
- The risk of hospital and ICU admission after infection is 2 to 3 times higher after infection with the Delta variant as compared with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.
- Unvaccinated people have a 6-fold higher risk of symptomatic COVID-19 disease, a 30-fold higher risk of being in the hospital and 48-fold higher risk of being in the ICU compared to the fully vaccinated
- If we cannot reduce transmission, and accelerate vaccination, ICU occupancy could exceed Wave 3 by October
- Substantial progress on vaccination will be necessary to protect Ontarians from COVID-19
To view the entire report from the Science Advisory Table, please click here.
1/4 New modelling. We need to accelerate vaccine a lot. We’re plateauing at about 76% of eligible Ontarians, but we now need to get above 85% of eligible Ontarians — and even there, vacc isn’t enough vs Delta. https://t.co/4n3dKjZXTw #COVID19ON
— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) September 1, 2021