Our local Hospital Group President and CEO says you can expect the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases to grow in the next week and there are more cases out there than you might think.
Public Health has confirmed 11 positive tested cases as of today (March31), but Grey Bruce Health Services' Gary Sims says, there are likely more cases than that, “There is a considerably much greater number of people that have the infection than will end up in a hospital or at a doctor's office,” He says most people will have, “Minor to minimal symptoms and come out perfectly fine.”
Some people may never visit an Assessment Centre, while many others who show up and have symptoms are told to isolate at home, and only a few are tested.
Sims says we will see an increase in cases over the next week before we reach a point where numbers might decline, “That's important to understand. The numbers will increase over the next week and that is a natural part of how this infection spreads. However, with the social isolation, it takes about five to seven days post— the two weeks of being isolated that we start to see the positive effect.”
He explains, “Then if we are fortunate and everybody does their part, maybe within the following two weeks after that, we may start to see a further levelling and even a decrease. It's then we'll know we've done all the right things.”
He says people who have been self-isolating for the last week to ten days and continue to isolate are the key, “They're actually our greatest hope, because no matter how much we prepare, we know that this infection is moving through our communities,” says Sims.
Sims explains, “We are not stopping this infection, we are in fact slowing it down to, one—give ourselves a chance to manage the influx of those who get sick and two— to allow us to build treatments where possible.”
Sims says there are treatments being tested but that takes time, “Hopefully we'll be able to get to a point where we have a vaccine or where we get enough immunity built within the communities or within society where the community itself, self-controls the infection.”
He notes we may have an advantage in a rural area, “I think here in Grey Bruce we are very fortunate that we have a lot of space between us and so we are not seeing the impact of some of the hot spots across the province and certainly we are different from those across the world.”
Sims says part of their planning is based on what they're seeing at Assessment Centres, “At this time we believe we are in a situation where we are managing, but that highly depends on people doing those things that are being asked of them by Public Health — staying home and recovering and self-isolating.”
Sims adds, “All I can say to you is, thank you to everybody for doing what's being asked of you by Public Health. Self-isolation, social distancing is important to not overwhelming the hospitals and the healthcare system, and while it does cause some isolation and suffering, and we recognize that, the greater risk is the obvious, that we could overrun ourselves in the hospitals, we could have increased death rates and in large numbers if we don't do these things.”
You can click the link to listen to Gary Sims on numerous aspects of COVID-19 on the Open Line on 560 CFOS that aired on Monday March 30th.